Florida's Economy in 2025: Housing Market & Growth

Florida’s Economy in 2025: Housing Market & Growth

Florida’s population is expanding, driven by robust tourism, job opportunities, and housing demand. Experts predict more repeat buyers and a thriving rental market.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — The Florida Chamber Foundation recently hosted its virtual 2025 Florida Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit, offering forecasts for the upcoming year on topics ranging from population growth to tourism trends. Key highlights included:

Residential Real Estate: Analysts predict a slight increase in housing inventory in Florida for 2025, with demand continuing to outpace supply. Jennifer Warner, an economist and director of economic development for Florida Realtors®, noted that there were approximately 170,000 active listings in 2024, a figure higher than in 2023 but consistent with historical averages. Due to affordability challenges, many individuals are expected to turn to Florida’s rental market. Warner anticipates fewer first-time buyers, with the median age of first-time homebuyers nationally at 38, influenced by high costs and interest rates. Instead, the market will likely see more repeat buyers leveraging their equity to manage higher lending costs, along with older and wealthier individuals engaging in transactions.

Multifamily Housing: Amanda White, vice president of government relations and research for the Florida Apartment Association, forecasts the delivery of over 55,000 new apartment homes in 2025. This represents a cooling from the 77,000 apartments delivered in 2024. Despite this, demand remains strong due to population growth and the challenges faced by single-family homebuyers. White highlighted that new apartments are quickly absorbed upon entering the market. Rising construction costs, elevated borrowing rates, and limited access to capital have slowed new construction starts, with many developers experiencing delays and repricing during the construction process.

Workforce: Florida continues to be a significant job creator, with one in 14 jobs in the U.S. originating in the state, according to Mark Wilson, president of the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Foundation. However, there are more job openings than available workers. Sheridan Morby, senior research economist for the Florida Chamber Foundation, noted an increase in the number of people aged 20 to 29 leaving Florida. Untapped workforce opportunities include individuals aged 16 to 24 who are neither in school nor employed, 1.8 million Floridians without a high school diploma or GED needing upskilling, and 15% of parents with young children who left the workforce due to childcare challenges.

Employers: Key concerns for employers include workforce development, affordable housing, litigation and insurance costs, and infrastructure. Hiring is expected to slow in 2025, with Florida’s unemployment rate projected to remain low, between 3.6% and 3.8%. The chamber foundation anticipates annual job growth of 1% to 1.25%.

Population Growth: Florida leads the nation in net income migration, gaining $36.1 billion from 2021 to 2022, primarily from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California, and Pennsylvania. The only state Florida lost money to was Tennessee. More people are moving to Florida than any other state, although it also has the second-highest outflow, losing residents to 19 states in 2023 compared to 14 states in 2022. The 20 to 29 age group is particularly affected, with high homeownership costs and job opportunities elsewhere cited as reasons for leaving. The Florida Chamber Foundation expects the state’s population to grow by 1.7% in 2025, reaching approximately 23.75 million. Over the next five years, more than 80% of Florida’s growth is projected to occur in 10 counties, including Hillsborough, Lee, Polk, and Pasco.

Tourism: Florida welcomed 140.6 million visitors in 2023, contributing $127.7 billion to the economy and saving each Florida taxpayer $1,910, according to Brett Laiken, chief marketing officer for Visit Florida. Tourism supports about 2.1 million jobs statewide.

Economic Growth: Florida had the fourth-highest gross domestic product (GDP) in the country in the second quarter of 2024, trailing only California, Texas, and New York. The state’s GDP was $1.72 trillion, as reported by the Florida Chamber Foundation.

Perspective from a Florida Realtor and Native:

As a native Floridian and realtor, I see firsthand the dynamic changes shaping our state’s economy and housing market. The influx of new residents and the strong demand for housing present both challenges and opportunities. While affordability remains a concern, the growing rental market offers viable alternatives for many. The continued development of multifamily housing and the resilience of our tourism sector are positive indicators of Florida’s economic health. For those considering a move to Florida, now is an exciting time to explore the diverse opportunities our state has to offer.

Your Realtor,

Antoinette Vazquez

407-579-5008

Antoinette.Vazquez@CBRealty.com

Contact Me Today

Source: Business Observer (Sarasota, FL)